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Let's do some math!

Discussion in '[L4D2] Hidden Infected' started by Jost, Apr 21, 2014.

  1. Jost

    Jost Game Server Moderator

    Let's do some math, because some players crying around that they are never inf. Chance for being inf seems to be around 25%, so i took this number!

    The chance for being survivor next round: 75.0%
    The chance for being survivor next 2 rounds: 56.3%
    The chance for being survivor next 3 rounds: 42.2%
    The chance for being survivor next 4 rounds: 31.6%
    The chance for being survivor next 5 rounds: 23.7%
    The chance for being survivor next 6 rounds: 17.8%
    The chance for being survivor next 7 rounds: 13.3%
    The chance for being survivor next 8 rounds: 10.0%
    The chance for being survivor next 9 rounds: 7.5%
    The chance for being survivor next 10 rounds: 5.6%
    The chance for being survivor next 11 rounds: 4.2%

    The chance for being infected next round: 25.0%
    The chance for being infected next 2 rounds: 6.3%
    The chance for being infected next 3 rounds: 1.6%
    The chance for being infected next 4 rounds: 0.4%
    The chance for being infected next 5 rounds: 0.1%

    What does this mean?
    - 1 out of 24 players will be survivor 11 times in a row. On a full server, there will be one (according to math) :P
    - 1 ouf of 62.5 players will be infected 3 times in a row. On a full server, there will be one every 2.5 rounds.
    - if you were survivor 10 times in a row, your chance for being infected next round would still be 25%. (past events doesn't matter)

    (detective = survivor)
    DAT MATH!
     
  2. ChooChoo

    ChooChoo Head Administrator Staff Member

    *becomes detective*

    *buys defuser*

    "Alright everyone, if you see C4, tell me."

    *Infected team won't buy it*
    -----------------------------------
    *If infect do buy it, I disarm it because, math*
    -----------------------------------



    *Troll Face* :>
     
  3. saymyname200

    saymyname200 Junior Member

    I was once infected 4 or five times in a row :D
     
  4. tank

    tank MG Donor

    In the future along by the system also maybe should exist like some kind "lucky second spawn skill" based by the hunter kills stats you made as Survivor playing on the server, more kills more % to spawn like SI next round ( like examp: 100 kills 1% lucky .)

    Detec spawn skill ( will give you possibillity to play as detective more rounds in a row) based by hunter clw kills playin as infected.
    Scientist (spawn twice in row)
     
  5. saymyname200

    saymyname200 Junior Member

    wouldn't that make it easier for everyone to guess who is what ?
     
  6. Lord Varys

    Lord Varys Junior Member

    I think there is a problem with that, whenever there are 4 players in the server 2 are inf and 2 are survs (so it's 50% of chances), but when there are 3 players 2 are inf and one is surv can someone explain why this happens? shouldn't it suppose to be more survs than inf??
     
  7. Lord Varys

    Lord Varys Junior Member

    No, infecteds must be selected randomly.
     
  8. tank

    tank MG Donor

    No 'cos is called lucky second, which does not need be spawn every round and will give possibility to old players who know how to play to be more time inf against to new players who joing first time on server and usually dont know how to play and killing randomlly fellow infected and ruin the round.
     
  9. tank

    tank MG Donor

    Infected are selected randomlly this is just extra stuff for old players.